ps.今天去長庚作了雷射，只有一小處，如果效過不錯，我打算過年再去做兩頰的斑。
2010年8月7日 星期六
美國經濟, 小 心二次探底
這是摘自2010年8月份商業周刊（p22-p24)
衰退跡象一:隨著政府補助退場,消費力下滑
自2009年夏季開始,政府為提振支出, 祭出刺激方案,至今已經接近退場時機了。隨著刺激方案的效力逐漸減弱,支出已見下滑。隨著補貼期結束,汽車產量和銷量雙雙下滑。最近一份消費者調查報告表明,美國消費者買車意願正在下跌,幾達四十多年以來的最低水準。
衰退跡象二:第一季成長率靠存貨積累撐起
雖然今年第一季GDP成長率達3%, 但幾乎全拜存貨積累（inventory accumulation)所賜,更不用說,其中一部份存貨是受到銷售不佳所拖累的被動存貨。若剔除存貨積累這個因素, 單一季的「最終銷售」成長率,比起或去同期僅達0.8%,而比去年第四季更只有0.2%。
衰退跡象三:購屋補貼沒了,看衰機率攀高
第二季的成長數字受益於房屋購買數量攀升,這是因為購房稅收補貼方案四月份截止,促使消費者趕搭最後一班車。只不過, 從第三季開始,這種好事再也沒有了,屆時情況又將如何演變？
衰退跡象一:隨著政府補助退場,消費力下滑
自2009年夏季開始,政府為提振支出, 祭出刺激方案,至今已經接近退場時機了。隨著刺激方案的效力逐漸減弱,支出已見下滑。隨著補貼期結束,汽車產量和銷量雙雙下滑。最近一份消費者調查報告表明,美國消費者買車意願正在下跌,幾達四十多年以來的最低水準。
衰退跡象二:第一季成長率靠存貨積累撐起
雖然今年第一季GDP成長率達3%, 但幾乎全拜存貨積累（inventory accumulation)所賜,更不用說,其中一部份存貨是受到銷售不佳所拖累的被動存貨。若剔除存貨積累這個因素, 單一季的「最終銷售」成長率,比起或去同期僅達0.8%,而比去年第四季更只有0.2%。
衰退跡象三:購屋補貼沒了,看衰機率攀高
第二季的成長數字受益於房屋購買數量攀升,這是因為購房稅收補貼方案四月份截止,促使消費者趕搭最後一班車。只不過, 從第三季開始,這種好事再也沒有了,屆時情況又將如何演變？
2010年7月27日 星期二
最後的演講The last Lecture
今天(7/27)開始看「最後的演講」，這是作者在得知因癌症已存活不了幾個月所作的最後一場演講內容，其實很適合青少年讀，當然這也是齡方的學校指定讀物。
On September 18, 2007, computer science professor Randy Pausch stepped in front of an audience of 400 people at Carnegie Mellon University to deliver a last lecture called “Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams.” With slides of his CT scans beaming out to the audience, Randy told his audience about the cancer that is devouring his pancreas and that will claim his life in a matter of months. On the stage that day, Randy was youthful, energetic, handsome, often cheerfully, darkly funny. He seemed invincible. But this was a brief moment, as he himself acknowledged.
Randy’s lecture has become a phenomenon, as has the book he wrote based on the same principles, celebrating the dreams we all strive to make realities. Sadly, Randy lost his battle to pancreatic cancer on July 25th, 2008, but his legacy will continue to inspire us all, for generations to come.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo
書中有幾個經典觀念很值得深思:
On September 18, 2007, computer science professor Randy Pausch stepped in front of an audience of 400 people at Carnegie Mellon University to deliver a last lecture called “Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams.” With slides of his CT scans beaming out to the audience, Randy told his audience about the cancer that is devouring his pancreas and that will claim his life in a matter of months. On the stage that day, Randy was youthful, energetic, handsome, often cheerfully, darkly funny. He seemed invincible. But this was a brief moment, as he himself acknowledged.
Randy’s lecture has become a phenomenon, as has the book he wrote based on the same principles, celebrating the dreams we all strive to make realities. Sadly, Randy lost his battle to pancreatic cancer on July 25th, 2008, but his legacy will continue to inspire us all, for generations to come.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo
書中有幾個經典觀念很值得深思:
- 我們改變不了上天發給我們的牌，只能決定怎麼打這手牌。
- 別忘了準備對別人有利的方案，這樣別人才會更願意和你打交道。
- 不屈不撓是一種美德，可是你不一定要讓別人看到你花多少心力。
- 為了進兒時夢想的迪士尼樂園當夢想師，作者想盡辦法，雖然已是大學教授，但他仍然遇到挫折:阻礙我們前進的磚牆，不會無緣無故擋在我們前面，這種磚牆的存在目的不是為了把我們排除在外，而是為了讓我們有機會證明自己多麼想要一件東西。
2010年7月25日 星期日
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